Trump will spark a war with Iran – which is great news for Isis

President Trump made great play when he came into office with his return of a bust of Winston Churchill to the Oval Office, presenting the move as a symbol of his admiration for adamantine patriotic resolve in pursuit of patriotic ends. Presumably, Trump was thinking of Churchill in 1940, not Churchill in 1915-16 when he […]

Petraeus: World order under ‘unprecedented threat’

Retired Gen. David Petraeus warned lawmakers on Wednesday that the world order created in part by the United States in the 20th century is under “unprecedented threat from multiple directions,” pointing to Russia, China, Islamist extremists and cyber threats. Those threats are compounded by an America whose “resolve about its defense has become somewhat ambivalent,” he […]

First days of Trump era signal America’s deepening political divide

In the blocks surrounding the White House, signs reading “Love Trumps Hate” and “Build Bridges Not Walls” littered the sidewalks on Sunday, the detritus of the Women’s March protesting the policies of President Donald Trump. Both Trump’s supporters and women and men who took part in the massive march against him in Washington on Saturday […]

Davos Glitter in the Gloom of Populism and Trumpism

President-elect Donald Trump has never been invited here. Neither has Nigel Farage, the British politician who led the Brexit campaign. The World Economic Forum — an annual gathering of global policy and business leaders, who come to debate the world’s great challenges — gets underway here Monday night as the shifting political trends toward nationalism […]

Trump Is Going to Regret Not Having a Grand Strategy

Throughout the presidential campaign and since Donald Trump’s election, former diplomats, retired generals, and foreign-policy analysts have attempted to decipher, explain, and predict his foreign-policy strategy. Will he pursue the big-stick model of Teddy Roosevelt? Embrace a neo-Nixonian “madman” strategy? Is Trump actually a champion of foreign-policy realism, or perhaps no realist at all? But […]

The serious dangers posed by a Trump presidency are numerous and manifest

Until now, getting into the news and reports about Russia and Trump meant getting into some rather dense weeds (PDF of declassified report here), but with the recent release by Buzzfeed of the full 35-page dossier on Trump and Russia (the explosive one, with the women peeing on Obama’s former hotel room bed), which was distilled into a two-page appendix in the […]

Report That Russia is Blackmailing Trump Keeps Getting More Believable

Earlier this week, CNN revealed that intelligence officers had informed Donald Trump of the existence of a document from a former British intelligence specialist. The document alleges many very bad things, but primarily that Trump is being blackmailed by Russia to do its bidding. Buzzfeed then published the document that was only referred to in […]

The Pessimist’s Guide to 2017

Donald Trump and Brexit shocked most of the world in 2016. But not readers of last year’s Bloomberg Pessimist’s Guide, which warned that the unthinkable could happen in both cases. Now the authors are turning their attention to 2017. From social breakdown in the U.S. to a nuclear crisis in North Korea to the defeat […]

Vladimir Putin wants a new world order. Why would Donald Trump help him?

Put his campaign rhetoric, tweets and appointments all together, and we’re getting a sense of U.S. foreign policy under Donald Trump. The president-elect has consistently signaled that he wants to be accommodating toward Russia and get tough on China. But that sees the world almost backward. China is, for the most part, comfortable with the […]

Trump, Russia, and the CIA: Allies and Adversaries Confused

When asked by The Cipher Brief about how both allies and adversaries might view President-elect Donald Trump’s early, contentious relationship with the CIA, former Acting Director of the CIA John McLaughlin remarked, “They are already scratching their heads bald about what is going on here, so I don’t think we can confuse them any more.” […]