Alert: a president that represents the ultimate black swan event

There have been a lot of screaming headlines in the past two weeks about how the stock and bond markets have turned volatile, unpredictable, scary, and downright bearish—that whatever big party investors have been enjoying is definitely over, and that a new, darker chapter of financial history is about to be written. That may be […]

America’s extraordinary economic gamble

VOLATILITY is back. A long spell of calm, in which America’s stockmarket rose steadily without a big sell-off, ended abruptly this week. The catalyst was a report released on February 2nd showing that wage growth in America had accelerated. The S&P 500 fell by a bit that day, and by a lot on the next […]

These 3 trends will define your future, says Jack Ma (Alibaba)

In a one-on-one interview on the second day of Davos, Alibaba founder Jack Ma gave his take on a wide range of global issues, from the backlash against globalization and the incoming Trump administration, to the prospects of a trade war between China and the US (it will never happen, he said) and the future […]

Trump to Order Dodd-Frank Review, Halt Obama Fiduciary Rule

President Donald Trump will order a sweeping review of the Dodd-Frank Act rules enacted in response to the 2008 financial crisis, a White House official said, signing an executive action Friday designed to significantly scale back the regulatory system put in place in 2010. Trump also will halt another of former President Barack Obama’s regulations, hated […]

TBTF Face Federal Reserve Stress Tests Assuming Big Global Recession

Wall Street banks will have to show they could survive a major global recession as part of an annual Federal Reserve exercise aimed at ensuring the biggest lenders aren’t vulnerable to a new financial crisis. The stress test scenarios released Friday by the Fed will be used to determine whether firms such as JPMorgan Chase & […]

The Trump effect has rallied US markets – but it’s based on illusion

Speculative markets have always been vulnerable to illusion. But seeing the folly in markets provides no clear advantage in forecasting outcomes, because changes in the force of the illusion are difficult to predict. In the US, two illusions have been important recently in financial markets. One is the carefully nurtured perception that President-elect Donald Trump […]

Pimco hoards cash to avoid risks after Trump rally: market euphoria will fade

Pimco is battening down the hatches on its biggest bond funds, beefing up cash positions and cutting exposure to risky corporate debt in the expectation that the Trump election market euphoria will fade. The asset management group, one of the biggest bond investors in the world, has been girding itself since late last year for […]

Koch Industries Says House GOP’s Tax Plan ‘Could Be Devastating’

Koch Industries Inc., the influential private firm headed by billionaire Republican supporters Charles and David Koch, slammed a key element of the House Republicans’ plan to overhaul corporate taxes, saying it would raise prices for American consumers and “could be devastating” to the economy. In a statement, Koch objected to the plan’s proposal to replace […]

Dollar soars to highest level in more than 13 years on Fed hike view

The dollar surged to a more than 13-year peak on Wednesday, bolstered by upbeat U.S. economic data that showed the economy on track for steady growth and reinforced expectations of interest rate increases by the Federal Reserve next month and in 2017. The greenback also posted sharp gains against the yen, rising to a more than […]