NATO: administration keeps working to protect the USA from the danger in the oval office

Senior American national security officials, seeking to prevent President Trump from upending a formal policy agreement at last month’s NATO meeting, pushed the military alliance’s ambassadors to complete it before the forum even began. The work to preserve the North Atlantic Treaty Organization agreement, which is usually subject to intense 11th-hour negotiations, came just weeks […]

Tax avoidance: the missing profits of nations

  Between 1985 and 2018, the global average statutory corporate tax rate fell by more than half. This column uses new macroeconomic data to argue that profit shifting is a key driver of this decline. Close to 40% of multinational profits were artificially shifted to tax havens in 2015, and this massive tax avoidance – and […]

Oil price alert: Iran ready to close the Strait of Hormuz

An old doomsday scenario has been revived again by Iranian officials. Iranian president Rouhani stated on Tuesday in Bern, Switzerland that his country could block the Strait of Hormuz for all Arab shipping traffic if Washington fully implements its zero oil export targets for Iran in the coming months. Rouhani, who is currently on a lobbying mission […]

Stiglitz: “Can the Euro Be Saved?”

by Joseph Stiglitz The euro may be approaching another crisis. Italy, the eurozone’s third largest economy, has chosen what can at best be described as a Euroskeptic government. This should surprise no one. The backlash in Italy is another predictable (and predicted) episode in the long saga of a poorly designed currency arrangement, in which […]

Kim & Trump in Singapore: “The summit produced little more than frothy statements without substance”

“The Singapore summit produced little more than frothy statements without substance, with little accountability for Kim Jong-un to cease and dismantle his nuclear weapons program.”  Jung Pak, SK-Korea Foundation Chair in Korea Studies and Senior Fellow in the Center for East Asia Policy Studies: The Trump administration will probably tout this as a Nobel-worthy effort by President […]

Europe, Merkel, the ESM and a possible asymmetric shock

Much of the French and German press was preoccupied with analysing what Angela Merkel meant when she made her proposals on the eurozone. The consensus is similar to ours – there is not much change from what we knew already. What we do sense, however, is that some of the commentators underestimate the difficulty to […]

The First Saudi-Iranian War Will Be an Even Fight

ince 2011, first in Syria and then in Yemen, proxy forces of Iran and Saudi Arabi have been in constant, brutal competition. Both sides seem to have concluded that a direct war isn’t in their interest, with neither having ever directly attacked the other. But there has always been a risk of escalation — and […]

Germany’s important Target-2 €902 bn debate. What happenes if a country leaves euro

Europe and the rest of the world should be examining the debate among German economists about what would happen to the Target-2 intra-euro area imbalances if a member country left Europe’s economic and monetary union. Target-2, an operating arm of the European financial system set up in the 1990s to regulate interbank credit, has grown […]

Germany, EU’s future threat: the ordoliberal utopia of a debt-free state

The observation that the eurozone is unsustainable does not lead ineluctably to a forecast that it will necessarily break apart. But there are events that greatly increase the likelihood of that outcome. Last week’s German budget is one of them. Olaf Scholz, Germany’s new Social Democratic finance minister, has proposed a budget with the following […]

Nuclear Risk: A Computer Glitch Could Start World War 3

The US early warning system is on watch 24/7, looking for signs of a nuclear missile launched at the United States. As a highly complex system with links to sensors around the globe and in space, it relies heavily on computers to do its job. So, what happens if there is a glitch in the […]